Adapting to climate change: A risk assessment and decision making framework for managing groundwater dependent ecosystems with declining water levels. Supporting document 6: Development of Bayesian Belief Networks for modelling the impacts of falling groundwater due to climate change on groundwater dependent ecosystems
Author: Peter Speldewinde
Baynesian belief networks (BBNs) developed for the purpose of modelling the potential impacts of climate change on groundwater dependent ecosystems have been tested at Gnangara Mound, Blackwood River and Margaret River Caves. These BBNs were utilised in these 3 case study locations to provide a visual representation of existing systems, and to model climate change impacts on ecosystem components such as vegetation, invertebrates and frogs. A BBN is a graphical model which can be used to establish the correlative and causal relationships between key factors and final outcomes. They help to provide decision support for problems involving uncertainty and probabilistic reasoning. In this study, the BBN’s were formulated using a combination of expert opinion and available data. Evaluation of the BBN models was undertaken by expert opinion and sensitivity analysis.