Approaches to risk assessment on Australian coasts: A model framework for assessing risk and adaptation to climate change on Australian coasts
Authors: Colin Woodroffe, Peter Cowell, David Callaghan, Roshanka Ranasinghe, Ruben Jongejan, David Wainwright, Stephen Barry, Keerylee Rogers and Amy Dougherty
This report presents a unique framework approach for modelling and assessing the risk of Australian coastlines to physical threats, including: sea level rise, shore erosion and storm damage. The framework incorporates many coastal hazard assessment procedures which have already been effectively utilized in several Australian states, including: the Coastal Tract Method (CTM), the Joint Probability Method (JPM), the Probabilistic Coastline Recession (PCR) Model, the Probabilistic Coastal Setback Line (PCSL) Model, and the Shoreface Translation Model (STM). The effectiveness of the framework approach was tested, calibrated and validated against 30 years of existing data for Narrabeen Beach, Northern Sydney. Probabilistic estimates of erosion hazard for the Narabeen Beach were derived from the model and were used to generate recommendations for adaptation decision-making. Further development of this model framework will aim to incorporate other considerations, including the role of estuaries and adaptation measures, on future coastal erosion and shoreline locations.